By Ben Wilson, International Policy Lead on the SCCS Board and Head of Public Engagement at SCIAF
The 29th Conference of the Parties in Baku, Azerbaijan in November represents a key moment in global affairs and our collective efforts to preserve a livable planet. Stop Climate Chaos Scotland has published a policy paper outlining priorities ahead of the conference, and some of the critical issues are summarised below.
Firstly, it’s important to note the context the talks take place in. With most estimates showing that the planet is very near to the 1.5C temperature goal, and the losses and damages of climate change already estimated to already be costing hundreds of billions of dollars annually, the stakes rise higher at each COP, and this one comes at the end of a year of devastating climate events around the world. The recent floods in Spain may bring the message home to richer countries what the global south have known for a long time: preventing climate change is an urgent priority, and the costs of prevention far outstrip the devastation unabated climate weather events can cause.
Hope is often in short supply, and as with previous years, there are serious concerns about the influence of fossil fuel companies over the talks and of human rights abuses in the host country. So, what would meaningful progress look like?
Critically, COP29 is tasked with agreeing a New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG) from 2025 onwards. In 2009 developed countries pledged to mobilise $100bn per year of climate finance by 2020 until 2024, but have failed to do so. It is hoped that the new goal will be more rooted in what is actually needed by countries to address climate impacts, with a clearer plan set out on how to achieve it. Negotiations at COP29 on this issue are likely to be fierce and combative due. Many developing countries already feel betrayed and let down by the Global North, having agreed to transition away from fossil fuels on the condition of receiving levels of climate finance that have not yet materialised.
Finance is the only way to unlock global climate action that will put the world on a path to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C, enable adaptation, and address the now unavoidable loss and damage from climate change impacts falling on those least responsible. A summary of the latest negotiations on the NCQG and the positions of key country groupings can be seen here.
With a deadline to submit new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) towards the overall temperature goal set in the Paris Agreement by February 2025, COP29 is a key moment to drive up ambition. The Climate Action Network has called on countries to reflect equity through fair shares, climate justice and adequate finance in their enhanced NDCs.
A global fund to secure contributions towards the Loss and Damages caused by climate impacts was established at COP27, following welcome leadership by the Scottish Government on this issue, and then operationalised at COP28. This year, a board for the fund has been established which is now working out the details of how the fund will operate, but none of the $700m pledged to the fund at COP28 has yet been distributed.
A high-level dialogue will be convened during COP29 to engage political leaders in commenting on how it is developing. Crucially, there remains much concern amongst developing countries that the newly titled “Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage” could yet fall short of the scale of ambition required to truly meet the need. Many developing countries and civil society organisations will therefore be pushing at COP29 for a defined target for L&D to be set under the NCQG, and this is likely to be a highly contentious area of conflict in Baku. Furthermore, it is hoped by the COP29 Presidency that significantly more pledges towards the fund will be made during the conference. The Loss and Damage Collaboration published a briefing on what needs to happen on Loss and Damage in 2024.
While the Paris Agreement set a crucial target for reducing emissions, many governments have continued to approve new coal, oil and gas projects even though burning the world’s current fossil fuel reserves would result in seven times more emissions than what is compatible with keeping warming below 1.5ºC. Unbelievably, it took 26 COPs for there to be any mention of fossil fuels in a decision text, and the COP26 agreement only managed peacemeal commitments with significant caveats.
However, COP28 in Dubai reached an historic agreement to “transition away from fossil fuels” after much debate and discussion over the two weeks in the UAE. COP29 must now make sure that this ambition is realised by ensuring that across negotiation streams there are tangible steps put in place to ensure this transition can happen quickly.
Closer to home, it will be important to watch the Scottish Government’s activity at COP29. This will be the first COP since the Scottish Government committed to changing its legally binding climate targets, following years of failure to deliver adequate climate policies. Scotland’s global reputation as a climate leader took a significant hit when this news reached headlines in the global climate press, and we hope that travelling officials and Ministers will be ready at COP29 to own up to their mistakes and commit to learning from them on our journey to net-zero by at the latest 2045.
Finally, the concerns of many civil society organisations about the human rights situation in Azerbaijan will cast a dark shadow over the talks. Azerbaijan has a troubling record when it comes to freedom of speech, assembly, and the treatment of civil society, and we fear that these issues may hinder meaningful participation during the climate negotiations. Effective climate campaigning and fair climate action relies on the ability of activists, indigenous groups, and environmental defenders to speak freely, share their perspectives, and hold decision-makers accountable.
We call on the Azerbaijani government and the UN to guarantee a safe and open space for all participants, ensuring that human rights are respected throughout COP29, and for UK and Scottish Governments to champion progressive, transformative, human rights-based, and inclusive processes and outcomes across the UNFCCC and COP spaces, and advocate strongly for full respect for the freedom of expression and of peaceful protest in Azerbaijan and at COP29.
